German Economist Predicts Netherlands Will Win the 2026 World Cup

German economist Joachim Clement, who correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners, has projected that the Netherlands will take the 2026 title at the tournament jointly hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico. Clement said his forecast is based on a scientific modelling approach that has also mapped the expected path of the competition. Clement previously anticipated Germany’s 2014 triumph, France’s 2018 victory and Argentina’s 2022 title. His model now suggests Japan will produce a major upset by eliminating Brazil in the second round. The forecast also indicates that Scotland will be knocked out in the group stage, while England is expected to reach the semi-finals before losing to Portugal. Clement said he initially began his research not to profit from betting but to show how misleading economic forecasts can be. He described himself as a pessimist and said his first correct prediction, in 2014, seemed like a coincidence. After his next two forecasts also proved accurate, Clement said he reviewed his methodology again. He added that he criticizes experts for overconfidence when predicting subjects they do not know well, and argues that chance can make people appear to be experts.