Analysis: Hezbollah faces leadership crisis while keeping arms, losing ground

ANBAR, Iraq — An analysis published Friday described Hezbollah as navigating an unprecedented period in its nearly four-decade history, retaining its weapons and organizational structure while shedding much of its former domestic standing. The movement preserved its arsenal after the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024 and a subsequent agreement in April 2026, but lost the internal position it once held, the analysis said. The killing of long-time Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah left a leadership vacuum that has strained both the party's domestic legitimacy and its regional network, according to the assessment. Israel continues to hold positions in Lebanese territory, and Hezbollah has linked any disarmament to an Israeli withdrawal. The Lebanese state has formalized disarmament as an official commitment within the framework of U.S.-backed negotiations with Israel, and the army has begun deploying in southern villages. Political writer Abdullah Kamh estimated that the party has lost roughly 80 percent of its alliance network, while analyst Khalil Nasrallah argued the shift represents a reordering of priorities rather than a collapse. Hezbollah retains its position within the Shiite base but has seen relations with Christian and Sunni partners weaken. U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the handling of Hezbollah in talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the fall of the Assad regime has narrowed the party's strategic depth. The analysis warned that a full dissolution of Hezbollah's military structure across Lebanon could risk the kind of army-Hezbollah confrontation that has been avoided for decades.