Strait Closure Pulls 14 Million Barrels of Oil a Day From Market

London-based Barclays Bank has maintained its forecast that Brent crude will average $100 per barrel in 2026, warning that prices could move higher if regional tensions persist. The bank said the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed about 14 million barrels of oil a day from global markets, including supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Before the war, about 20% of global energy supply passed through the strait, making it a critical chokepoint for world oil trade. Barclays said current stock indicators point to a daily shortfall of 6 million to 8 million barrels. US inventories have fallen close to their lowest levels since 2020, underscoring the strain on supply. Brent crude is trading at around $105 per barrel.