US report says Iran's influence in Iraq cannot be reshaped by negotiation

WASHINGTON, United States — WASHINGTON — A US-based think tank said Iran's influence in Iraq is rooted in geographic, political, cultural and sectarian ties and cannot be undone through negotiations. The Gulf International Forum said the absence of Iraq from US-Iran talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan is no coincidence. In its report, the institute said Tehran has pressed for ceasefire arrangements in Lebanon but avoided raising Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq. It argued that Iran seeks to reduce its reliance on armed structures while maintaining influence through political institutions and electoral channels, complicating Washington's efforts to contain that influence. The report also noted that the new Iraqi government has made the disarmament and dissolution of armed factions a central US condition, while Tehran has avoided direct confrontation with Washington. Some groups have taken rhetorical steps toward disarmament and dissolution, but the report said the implementation mechanism has been deliberately left vague. The institute concluded that Iraq's exclusion from the negotiations does not signal a fundamental shift in Iran's presence in the country, but reflects a rapid transformation in how that influence operates.