Turkish seismologist says next week will be 'decisive' for assessing Marmara seismic activity

ISTANBUL, Türkiye — A Turkish seismologist said recent small earthquakes recorded in the Marmara Sea make the coming days critical for evaluating seismic activity near Istanbul. Professor Osman Bektaş told Ekonomim newspaper that a series of quakes under magnitude 3.5, at depths of 6 to 9 kilometers, have been recorded in the central basin of the Marmara Sea. He said the events point to a redistribution of pressure following minor movements along parts of the fault, and that the activity alone does not signal a larger earthquake. Bektaş said the next three to seven days will provide some of the most important scientific indicators of how ongoing processes will evolve. He added that the likelihood of a quake above magnitude 4 in the coming days would be the main indicator, and would allow experts to make a clearer assessment of the fault's current state. The seismologist cautioned against limiting expectations to a single scenario of a destructive quake above magnitude 7, noting that the Marmara's seismic situation could unfold through different scenarios. He said whether the fault is "locked" or "creeping slowly" still requires further study, and pointed out that the Marmara Sea lies on the North Anatolian Fault, one of the world's most active seismic zones. Turkish scientists have intensified their monitoring of the area following a magnitude 6.2 earthquake off Istanbul in the spring of 2025.