Strait of Hormuz talks shift focus to Gulf power balance rather than reopening

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have shifted from restoring shipping traffic to reshaping the power balance in the Persian Gulf, according to a CNN analysis. Iran is seeking to convert battlefield gains from its recent conflict with the United States into lasting political and institutional influence over the management of vessel movements in the strait, while Washington is working to block any arrangement that could set a precedent under international maritime law. The network reported that US President Donald Trump has expressed optimism that a deal could be reached within days, though the analysis said such statements have overshadowed the core disputes still to be resolved. Tehran maintains it is negotiating only with Oman, accusing the United States of slowing the process through military threats and mixed messaging. Iran has proposed a new corridor between Iranian and Omani waters that would cover security, mine clearance and navigational services, framing it as a coastal-state right. Washington has countered that the arrangement would grant Iran authority to regulate or restrict commercial shipping, threatening the principle of freedom of navigation. CNN noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not part of Iran's negotiating team but remains the decisive actor on military and security decisions in the strait, raising the risk that any agreement reached without its approval could falter. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that allowing a single state to control or restrict passage through an international waterway could set a precedent for other strategic chokepoints. Roughly 15 million barrels of oil per day remain outside their normal export channels, and Saudi Arabia's state energy company Aramco has estimated that closing the global stockpile gap could take up to 18 months even after the strait fully reopens.