Analysts say US-Iran understanding shifts Middle East rivalry from war to economy

KUWAIT CITY, Kuwait — Analysts say the recent US-Iran understanding has not ended competition in the Middle East but redirected it from military confrontation toward economic, commercial and influence-based rivalry. The shift places greater weight on economic capacity, technology, sea lanes, cybersecurity and global supply chains, they argue. With regional governments increasingly aware of the cost of war, ports, trade routes, energy corridors and rail links are likely to take on greater strategic importance, according to the analysts. They add that economic geography may carry more weight than military geography in shaping regional outcomes. Iraq is described as a potential logistics hub linking the Gulf to Turkey and connecting Iran with Syria, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, provided it secures political stability, infrastructure investment and long-term strategic planning. Steps such as the Development Road project and the integration of Iraqi ports into regional rail networks could position the country as a junction between Europe and the Gulf, according to the assessment. Analysts project that the direct risk of military conflict in the region could decline relatively by 2040, while the weight of Chinese and Indian investment in energy and infrastructure is expected to grow. Iraq's ability to build a production economy less dependent on oil, they say, will shape whether the current understanding holds over time.