African Development Bank warns super El Niño could cost Africa up to $20 billion

The African Development Bank has warned that a super El Niño event could inflict $10 billion to $20 billion in economic losses across Africa and trigger new migration flows. Anthony Nyong, the bank's director for climate change and green growth, said gross domestic product in the most affected countries could fall by an average of 1 to 2 percent, equivalent to the projected losses continent-wide. He added that the figure represents the first official estimate issued by a multilateral development bank on El Niño's potential impact. According to the bank, El Niño typically brings severe drought, flooding and storms, and could threaten government finances and the banking sector, cause widespread infrastructure damage and complicate debt repayments for countries already under financial strain. Nyong warned of a "climate finance trap" in which governments could be forced to divert health, education or infrastructure budgets toward disaster response. The bank's growth forecasts of 4.2 percent for this year and 4.4 percent for 2027 were issued in May, before the super El Niño warnings. Past El Niño events in 2023 and 2024 caused severe drought in southern Africa and extreme rainfall and flooding in the east, leading to widespread crop losses, rapid food price increases and record coastal sea-level rise. The bank said African farmers have already lost about $330 million in income this year, while the fisheries sector has also been severely affected by rising sea temperatures and storms. No further details on government response plans were immediately available.