Turkish seismologist warns Istanbul faces risk of quake above magnitude 7

ISTANBUL, Türkiye — A Turkish earthquake scientist has warned that the risk of a magnitude 7 or stronger earthquake in Istanbul should not be ignored, citing increased seismic activity in the Sea of Marmara. Osman Bektaş said small earthquakes recorded at depths of 10 to 13 kilometers along fault lines around the Princes' Islands and Çınarcık could point to a deeper deformation mechanism, possibly linked to tectonic stress changes following the 1963 magnitude 6.3 Çınarcık quake and the 2005 magnitude 6.2 tremor off Silivri. Bektaş said new scientific data from the Sea of Marmara does not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake, and urged Istanbul to prepare at the highest level for possible scenarios. Authorities have long warned of a potential magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the Marmara region, home to the city of 17 million people. Estimates cited in reporting suggest that a magnitude 7 or stronger quake in Istanbul could cause roughly 90,000 buildings to collapse, render 260,000 buildings unusable and create temporary shelter needs for 4.5 million people. Official figures show that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in August 1999, which struck the Istanbul region where the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet, killed 17,200 people, while unofficial estimates place the death toll at around 40,000.