Trump ends Iran ceasefire, five scenarios under discussion after Strait of Hormuz attacks

WASHINGTON, United States — U.S. President Donald Trump announced during the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran has collapsed, following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent U.S. strikes on Iranian air defenses, coastal facilities and missile and drone launch sites. Brent crude rose to about $78 a barrel at the open as markets absorbed the news. According to the analysis circulated after the announcement, a first scenario envisions a renewed but limited military confrontation confined to the area around the Strait of Hormuz, military bases and strategic points. A second scenario treats the end of the ceasefire declaration as a pressure tool to reshape negotiations, with indirect talks potentially resuming. A third scenario warns that a misstep by allied groups could escalate into a wider regional war. A fourth scenario points to energy market pressure pushing the parties toward an undeclared de-escalation formula. A fifth scenario holds that the crisis will test allied relations and deepen political rifts between European countries and within the United States.