OPEC trims 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3% in monthly report

BAGHDAD, Iraq — OPEC has lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3%, down from earlier estimates, according to the group's August monthly report. The organization kept its 2027 growth projection at 3.2%. The report projects global oil demand to rise by about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 and by 2.2 million bpd in 2027. OPEC's reference basket price fell by $6.76 per barrel in July to $82.99, while Brent averaged $83.97 and West Texas Intermediate averaged $79.22 during the same period. Production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation averaged 37.66 million bpd in July, an increase of 1.42 million bpd from the previous month. OECD commercial oil inventories declined by 26.4 million barrels in June to 2.729 billion barrels, standing 59.6 million barrels below the prior year and 66.5 million barrels below the five-year average. OPEC revised its 2026 oil demand estimate for Declaration of Cooperation countries upward to 42.1 million bpd, while leaving its 2027 forecast unchanged at 43.6 million bpd. The report noted that refinery margins at major trading hubs continued to rise, driven by European refinery outages, declining diesel and gasoline stocks, and geopolitical developments.