IMF Cuts Iraq 2026 Growth Forecast to 6.8% Contraction

BAGHDAD, Iraq — The International Monetary Fund has sharply revised down its growth forecast for Iraq, projecting the country's economy will contract 6.8 percent in 2026, according to its April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook report. The projection marks a significant deterioration from the 0.4 percent contraction recorded in 2025. Since October 2025, the IMF has lowered its 2026 growth estimate for Iraq by 10.4 percentage points, one of the largest downward revisions among oil-exporting nations in the Middle East and North Africa region. The report places Iraq within a group of non-Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters expected to post a 3.1 percent contraction in 2026 before recovering with 4.8 percent growth in 2027. The fund projects a medium-term recovery for Iraq's economy, forecasting 11.3 percent growth in 2027, followed by 3.4 percent expansion in 2030 and 3.5 percent in 2031. For the broader MENA region, the IMF projects growth of 1.1 percent in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2027, citing energy market volatility and geopolitical tensions as contributing factors to the subdued outlook.