Atlantic Council says disarming Shiite groups pushes Iraqi PM toward war or resignation

BAGHDAD, Iraq — An Atlantic Council report says Iraq’s Shiite factions are hardening their stance on disarmament in response to the United States’ war threat against Iran. Washington has backed Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi outside the Tehran-aligned political framework, while Iran is pressing armed groups, particularly the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), to keep their weapons, the report said. The report found that the U.S. war on Iran launched on February 28, 2026 has reshaped Iraqi politics, with the Revolutionary Guards Council taking control of the PMF. It said the number of armed factions refusing to disarm has risen from five to ten, and that members of the Najib Movement have threatened to detain army and police personnel attempting to enter their bases in southern Baghdad. The Atlantic Council said al-Zaydi remains committed to disarmament during cabinet meetings, but the prevailing political framework will not allow a Shiite-on-Shiite armed confrontation. The think tank concluded that if the White House withdraws its support, al-Zaydi would be compelled to resign. According to the report, al-Zaydi’s core objective is not disarmament but the restoration of the state’s monopoly on the use of force, the Atlantic Council said.