US report: Iraqi armed groups shifting focus to preserving influence

BAGHDAD, Iraq — A report by a U.S.-based think tank says Iraqi armed groups and Iran are reassessing the role of arms inside the country, prioritizing the protection of long-held political and economic gains over ideological "resistance" activities. The paper, titled "Armed Groups and the Logic of Self-Preservation" and published by the International Gulf Forum Institute, argues that the groups' main objective is no longer expanding influence through armed actions but safeguarding the leverage they have accumulated through years of political growth. It says the factions now control ministries and lucrative revenue streams, a process facilitated by what it describes as Baghdad's relative weakness. According to the report, three factors have reshaped the groups' strategic calculations: mounting U.S. pressure on Baghdad, Israeli operations across the region, and Iran's increasingly constrained position. In Iraq's November 2025 elections, parties affiliated with the main armed groups won roughly 80 of the 329 seats in parliament, a result the report says strengthens their chances of representation in the executive branch. The report adds that the groups have stayed silent on Israeli claims of bases on Iraqi territory and avoided direct confrontation with either the United States or Israel, since such an escalation would jeopardize their parliamentary gains and economic networks.