US food prices may rise as global fertilizer supply tightens, analyst warns

A US-based analyst has warned that disruptions in the global fertilizer market could push food prices higher in the United States, citing the dominance of China, Russia and Iran over fertilizer supplies. Geoff Steer, a consultant at the Hartland Institute, outlined his concerns in an article published Saturday in the Wall Street Journal. He said the conflict in Ukraine, China's cuts to fertilizer exports and disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have deepened volatility in fertilizer prices. Steer urged the US administration to strengthen the domestic fertilizer supply chain and expand oil and gas production, noting that natural gas is critical for nitrogen-based fertilizers while oil and gas refining is essential for producing the sulfur used in phosphate fertilizers. He argued that energy security and food security cannot be treated separately. Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was negotiating with Iran over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with an agreement expected to affect global oil markets. Bessent said a deal would extend beyond energy to fertilizers, refined products and industrial gases, potentially lowering prices and reviving trade.