Italian report warns al-Sudani government faces risk of collapse under US-Iran pressure

WASHINGTON, United States — An Italian analytical report published by Special Eurasia has warned that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani's government is at risk of collapse as Iraq is drawn back into the center of regional rivalries between the United States and Iran. The report says al-Sudani faces a strategic impasse over US demands to disarm Iran-aligned factions: his government lacks either the military force or the political leverage to carry out such a move without triggering an internal crisis. According to the analysis, Washington holds leverage over Iraq through the country's financial system and bank accounts, while Iran can respond using tools including pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and the supply of gas and electricity. The report said full Iraqi compliance with US pressure would likely draw an economic and energy-based response from Tehran, while rejection of the demands could trigger harsher US sanctions or financial restrictions. The report warned that a forced attempt to disarm the factions could split the army, paralyze parliament and bring down the government, given the political and economic networks some groups maintain inside the state. It also said Iran views Iraq as a strategic depth that absorbs military pressure and may prefer a weak or paralyzed government in Baghdad over one fully aligned with Washington.