Global oil stocks face critical squeeze as Iran war reshapes supply

The war between the United States and Iran has removed roughly 2.6 billion barrels of oil from world markets since fighting began, equivalent to about 25 days of global consumption, according to figures cited in the report. Prewar demand stood at 103 million barrels per day, while most analysts estimate the current supply gap at around 5 million barrels per day. Saudi energy company Aramco has placed Gulf-related supply losses at 11 million barrels per day. China's demand has eased in recent months, partly softening the pressure, but analysts warn that if the crisis lasts six months, global stocks would be insufficient to cover the shortfall. The International Energy Agency said in March that 400 million barrels had been released from emergency reserves, with official and commercial stocks among member countries totaling about 1.5 billion barrels. On paper, that volume could cover a 5-million-barrel daily gap for 300 days, though the agency cannot compel commercial companies to release supplies. The usable pool is therefore closer to 900 million barrels of official reserves, enough to offset the current gap for roughly 180 days. In the United States, Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, with the government's watchdog reporting deteriorating infrastructure and roughly a quarter of stored volumes now unusable. If usable capacity slips to 200 million barrels, U.S. reserves could cover the supply gap for about 40 days.