Baghdad will not pivot away from Tehran despite US alignment, analyst says

WASHINGTON, United States — An Iranian analyst argued that Washington's selection of Baghdad as President Donald Trump's first foreign destination reflects a new direction in Iraqi foreign policy, though it does not signal a break with Tehran. Writing on the Diplomacia Irani website, researcher Ferhad Kaderi said Trump's public backing of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and his opposition to Nouri al-Maliki's return as prime minister shaped the formation of Sudani's government. Kaderi added that Sudani's visit to Washington carried signals to Iran regarding economic partnership with the United States and the disarmament of non-state armed groups. Kaderi noted that Trump's announcement that the US-led international coalition will withdraw from Iraq by September 2026 coincides with the government's commitment to complete disarmament by the same date, placing Sudani before a difficult political and security test. Iran-aligned groups have opposed Washington's growing role in Iraq's economy, warning that reduced US military presence could result in "economic occupation." According to the analysis, the United States aims to shift its relationship with Iraq from security cooperation to investment, oil, natural gas and trade, but the partnership is not expected to drive Baghdad away from Tehran. Kaderi argued that US support gives Sudani external leverage, while opponents could use it domestically to portray his government as aligned with Washington.